GLP-1 Outlook in 2024

The outlook for GLP-1s in 2024 is very promising, with continued strong growth expected in several key areas:

Market Expansion:

  • Weight Management: GLP-1s have revolutionized obesity treatment, offering significant weight loss and improved health outcomes. This, coupled with rising obesity rates globally, is driving market expansion. Analysts predict the GLP-1 market to reach $25 billion by 2028, up from $12 billion in 2023.
  • New Indications: Research suggests GLP-1s have potential beyond diabetes and obesity, in conditions like non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), Alzheimer’s disease, and even addiction. This could significantly expand the patient pool and market size.

Product Innovation:

  • Oral formulations: Injectable GLP-1s currently dominate, but oral versions like Lilly’s semaglutide GLP-1 pill (due in 2024) could boost patient convenience and compliance, further driving market growth.
  • Longer-acting injectables: Injectable options with extended release periods (e.g., every 3 months) are being developed, offering greater convenience and potentially improving adherence.

Challenges and Uncertainties:

  • Drug Shortages: The ongoing shortage of some GLP-1s, like Byetta and Victoza, could hinder patient access and limit market growth in 2024.
  • Cost and Affordability: GLP-1s are expensive, raising concerns about affordability and insurance coverage. Addressing these issues will be crucial for wider adoption.
  • Long-term Efficacy: Whether patients can maintain weight loss after stopping GLP-1s remains unclear. More research is needed to address this question.

Overall, the GLP-1 market is poised for significant growth in 2024, driven by increasing demand for effective weight management solutions, potential new indications, and product innovations. However, challenges like drug shortages, affordability, and long-term efficacy need to be addressed to ensure equitable access and maximize the impact of these promising drugs.